Includes bibliographical references (p. 99-100).
|Series||Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems ;, 431|
|LC Classifications||HB3711 .A85 1996|
|The Physical Object|
|Pagination||xi, 116 p. ;|
|Number of Pages||116|
|LC Control Number||95045634|
Causal and stochastic elements in business cycles: an essential extension of macroeconomics leading to improved predictions of data. Causal and Stochastic Elements in Business Cycles: an Essential Extension of Macroeconomics Leading to Improved Predictions of Data. [Arvid Aulin] -- The prevailing orthodoxy according to which all macroeconomic theory should be . Aulin A. () The Basic Business Cycles as the Causal Part of Business Cycles. In: Causal and Stochastic Elements in Business Cycles. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol Author: Arvid Aulin. Aulin A. () An Alternative Vision of the Stochastic Element in Business Cycles. In: Causal and Stochastic Elements in Business Cycles. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol
The last four papers address causal issues in physics, with emphasis on physical processes that are also probabilistic, in other words, stochastic processes. With this closing emphasis, the importance of stochastic causality, that is, causal analysis of stochastic processes, is stressed. IMF Book Forum: Beating the Business Cycle - Joutz Leading Indicators Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) follows in the tradition of Mitchell and Burns. “Beating the Business Cycle” provides laymen a disciplined approach to understanding how leading indicators can be used in a world deluged with information and conventional thought. Business Cycles Many modern studies of business cycles also rely fundamentally on the Solow model. This includes real as well as monetary models. How can Solow’s framework turn into a business cycle setup? Assume that the production technology will exhibit a stochastic component aﬁecting the productivity of factors. Aulin A. () The Lucas Growth Theory and its Generalization to Business Cycles. In: Causal and Stochastic Elements in Business Cycles. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol
Aulin A. () The General Theory of Economic Growth and Business Cycles. In: Causal and Stochastic Elements in Business Cycles. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol Early “fresh water” models that included time and stochastic elements were Brock and Mirman's () stochastic growth model and real business cycle models à la Kydland and Prescott (). The influential graduate text book of Stokey and Lucas () provided the necessary toolkit for a fully microfounded dynamic and stochastic analysis. The Kaldor-Kalecki stochastic model of business Nonlinear Analysis: Modelling and Control, , Vol. 16, No. 2, – The Kaldor–Kalecki stochastic model of b usiness cycle. Marco Del Negro, Frank Schorfheide, in Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Abstract. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models use modern macroeconomic theory to explain and predict comovements of aggregate time series over the business cycle and to perform policy analysis.